By Monsoon Mike:
Clearing skies and noticeably cooler weather Saturday with temperatures in the 40s, but not nearly as shockingly cold as Sunday and Monday will be with wind and temperatures mainly in the 20s! Also, cannot rule out some snow showers/flurries/squalls Saturday night into Sunday, so keep an eye to the sky. Remember that these quick-moving type squalls can dust up the ground rather quickly. Then our attention turns to our Thanksgiving eve storm potential.
Latest computer model rundown:
American Model: Out to sea. Little impact except wind.
Canadian Model: A cold, raw, ugly rain with some mixing to snow and ice north of Blue Mountain but mainly a rain event.
European Model: Mainly rain with some mixing near Philly but all snow/ice in the Poconos.
What does Monsoon Mike believe? Well, the American model in past years stunk, but this year hasn't been doing too bad. So not guaranteeing a storm. The European model was the king last year, but this year hasn't been that perfect. Nevertheless, it is being very insistent with this, not to mention rumor has it that recent "tweaks" to it are improving its accuracy. So perhaps this will be a good test? The Canadian model may be that I think actually happens. Although it will be brutally cold beginning Sunday, without a firm blocking mechanism in place, I think that cold air gets chipped away at and will allow warmer air to wrap in and keep it mainly rain south of Blue Mountain. I don't quite buy the total out to sea idea either like the American wants, either. So again, going with a mainly cold, raw, rain event BUT with mixing in northern areas and perhaps even some slickness in southern areas if we get a good batch of precipitation during cooler nighttime hours. This is still an every changing situation, however, and what I just said is not a permanent forecast, but my best analysis now.
